2023-05-25
- A post names PLs for an upcoming "gamer wave", shows four models, and says that the wave after "gamer" will be a mixed wave.
- The debut will be around June 25th.
2023-06-15
- Names are Bandage, Vantacrow and Yu Q, and the watchalong will be hosted by Mysta and Rosemi.
2023-06-24
- Krisis debuts. All claims in my bullet points above are accurate.
- The official Anycolor Twitter posts about people pretending to be affiliated with them, with a specific claim: "Some parties have even forged contracts in which they claim to have signed with our company". I'll assume they were trying to address the leaker. (archive)
So all claims in my bullet points above were accurate, showing that these posts were made by one or more people with privileged information. Did these leakers make claims that cannot be independently verified?
- "If people are leaking aruvn from the gamer wave. Let me leak the other 3."
- "Originally there was supposed to be a league streamer but he and two other people got fired and that was why the wave got delayed."
- In general, the information is credited to/blamed on "the gamer wave for not keeping their mouth shut and telling people".
These claims are plausible, especially since they were claimed together with proven claims, but some of them ring false to me; I've noted before that Aruvn retweeted the Krisis debut announcement, which he didn't have to do if they kicked him out. That's not conclusive disproof, but it's worth noting.
These leakers also have no issue with Aruvn or Krisis possibly facing blowback, so I doubt they're on a crusade to save Niji's talents from Niji.
I refer to leakers in plural because it's easier. It also feels odd that May 25 had the model art to hand but June 15 described them with words. That's hardly conclusive though.
2023-06-26
2023-06-27
2023-07-20
2023-08-23
- Mysta's graduation is announced. His last stream will be on August 27.
It is possible that
only July 20 was legit and June 26 was a lucky guess. One popular rrat is that Mysta himself was the leaker. Nothing contradicts Mysta leaking his own graduation, but I doubt he was responsible for the Krisis leaks.
None of these leaks used tripcodes, out of ignorance, fear, a deliberate decision to make multiple people seem like one leaker, a deliberate decision to increase the amount of "leaker here" noise, or something else. But that leaves no way to determine which leaks are legit until after the fact.
And there is a
lot of "leaker here" noise.

Sure, Selen's not looking so hot and it
is "late winter", but August has come and gone and Shu is still around.