You'll probably want to skip to the TLDR at the bottom since all of this is just me sperging
I'll start with this for context though. Here's everything that Subaru did during the week Aqua's graduation was announced:
1.
Right after the announcement, she posted two tweets that she deleted almost immediately:
View attachment 76974
"I wish you would have just stayed."
"That's just me being selfish though."
2.
(This part is especially rrat-y but bear with me). Subaru posted a cover song on her birthday last month. It's a vocaloid song titled "In Case You're Gonna Jump"
The instrumentals are upbeat but it's a bit of a darker song, especially for a Subaru cover. It's basically about someone trying to stop their friend from jumping off a roof by reminding them of their friendship. There are some interesting lyrics:
Coincidental lyrics don't mean anything but the more interesting part is that the day after Aqua's announcement, Subaru made the cover private. Here's a
JP Subatomo tweet talking about it. Then the cover went back up about 4-5 hours after that, but with comments turned off. Here's
another tweet talking about it coming back. Again, this doesn't exactly mean anything but is worth mentioning considering the timing.
3.
On her morning stream that Friday, she said she would not talk about Aqua on stream as it'd get her sad.
Here's exactly what she said:
"By the way, there are a lot of people expecting me to talk about Minato Aqua-san, but it'll make me sad so I won't talk about it on stream. It's gonna be sad so I won't be talking about it on stream, please understand."
After that she sees chat posting sad emojis and stuff and follows up with:
"See, the vibes are gonna get like this, that's why I don't wanna bring it up! We've been having good conversations but I don't think I want to bring it up on stream so I won't."
She ends the stream with that awkward laughing tone and then later
on Twitter, bans any clips of that part.
And then after that,
nothing. Subaru
never talks about Aqua again nor does she ever talk
to her again in public. The last time they talked on stream was around a month ago during the finale of HoloARK, about a week before Aqua's announcement. She asked Aqua and Choco to take a photo together as Gen 2 reps.
That is all that's happened. Everything after this is just my personal thoughts and rrating.
Honestly, I'd be willing to believe everything is fine just from Subaru saying that they were talking to each other a while ago. But these weeks of essentially pretending Aqua doesn't exist have been awkward and made me wonder if she's bottling up her feelings.
Some other random tidbits and speculation:
- So we know from Mio that even up till 2 weeks ago, some Holos were still trying to convince Aqua to stay. Towa admitted she was one of them but she accepted the decision after listening to Aqua talk about it. I fully believe Subaru was another one, but she was much less accepting and as time went on, it began to hurt her badly.
- Besides Shion, Subaru was the one Aqua was closest to in Gen 2. Especially back in the early days, they relied on each other a ton and talked fairly often. Aqua still had the introvert barrier but Subaru was one of the reasons she started to open up. She considers Aqua a sister and always thought that they could get through any issues together. Aqua said she had thought about quitting years ago and I'm certain Subaru was one of the reasons she didn't, along with Norio, Mea, Shion etc.
- We know from her last members stream that Aqua made the decision to graduate around April 27th and likely told the girls at the start of May. Subaru's cover came out for her birthday on July 2nd. Honestly, I don't really believe Subaru's cover is something dedicated to Aqua, but I would understand if it was true. Covers can take anywhere from a few weeks to a few months, so it definitely could have happened within the time frame. That part doesn't really matter though.
- There was a morning stream about 2 months ago where Subaru said something happened that made her "explode with stress." After which, she went to get yakiniku by herself. Miko noticed and texted her, asking if she was okay, then they hung out and Subaru felt better. It could have been nothing to do with Aqua but it also could have been related.
- Aqua had her birthday call-ins on 8/8. People expected Subaru to call in because she always has, but this time she didn't. It was a little offputting cause Subaru was streaming Super Mario by herself at the time, a game she could have easily paused for a few minutes to go say happy birthday.
I was also gonna mention what
@NafsuBuas735 posted with the translation of Aqua's note to Subaru. One part stuck out to me. This right here:
"Thank you for clashing/squaring off against me with your everything."
Aqua uses 「ぶつかって」 here which means to clash/conflict/collide. Even as Aqua was writing the note, she was wondering if this wording was gonna sound weird, but went ahead and used it anyways. It was odd to me because as much as I've known these two, they've never really "clashed" about anything on stream. They certainly pulled pranks on each other, messed around and beat each other up in games like Minecraft/ARK/etc. Maybe that's what Aqua was referring to. She could also be referring to how their opposite natures of introvert/extrovert clashed with each other. But it made me wonder what if she was referring to something else.
SO BASICALLY, what I think happened is that for months, Subaru kept trying to convince Aqua to cancel her graduation. Likely more so than anyone else. We know how passionate she can be. But as she kept trying and as Aqua kept denying her, she felt worse and worse. Norio said she blamed herself after she found out about Aqua's choice, I think Subaru did the same but x100. She started feeling massive regret, maybe not being there more or not talking to her more etc. And in that sadness, she could have gotten a bit heated. I don't think she said anything harsh or insulting or that it turned into an argument. But she likely raised her voice, cried and even begged at some point. That might have been what Aqua meant when she said "thanks for clashing against me with everything." After Subaru realized she couldn't change Aqua's mind though, she did what she usually does and tried to avoid thinking about it altogether.
Now one of the things I love about Subaru is that she's not like most women. Women tend to hold on to grudges and negative feelings for as long as possible, while Subaru has always tried to find the quickest way to make herself feel better. Have an issue with management or perms? Come up with even more ideas/plans. Feeling stressed or overworked? Get some yakiniku or watch some Yugioh. Have ghosts in your house? Literally just stop caring. It's simple as hell but it's effective and something I admire about her. The thing is though, she's been trying to apply this method to what's happening with Aqua. By not interacting on stream and not talking about it, she's trying to force herself to stop being sad and just move on.
But this isn't something as simple as having a bad day. One of her best friends is leaving the company they've been at for 6 years. It's something she needs to accept but can't and it's been eating at her for months. So you have the fact that it's just plain sad, then you have Subaru hating how selfish she's being as well the guilt that could be there. Not to mention the pressure she feels to not let any of this be known as Hololive's "Sun Girl" and basically, all of that is why things are the way they are currently.
SUPER TLDR: Subaru's just really depressed that Aqua's gone. She fought hard to get Aqua to stay but failed and likely blamed herself. She also hates how selfish she's been in wanting Aqua to stay and by not acknowledging any of her feeling publicly, she's basically trying to force herself to not be sad and just move past all of it. Her role as Hololive's "Sun Girl" and desire to be happy in front of her fans is also adding onto this.
Just reiterating, all of this is a rrat and Subaru could currently be the happiest duck in the world right now (which is what I want honestly). This is just me overthinking and speculating based on how the past few weeks have gone. And yes, I am an autistic fuck. How did you know?