Indistinguishable AI vtubers by 2029, calling it.
The "purpose" of a tool is irrelevant to how it functions or will be used. AI music has already reached the point where the vast majority can not tell the difference, and will by the end of the year be perfected. For the minority of people who actually do feel an emotional connection with music, this is going to cause of lot of existential crises. AI vtubers will be the same way.
This is based on the understanding of AI at one point in time. AI games are in its infancy - really, more like proof of concept. They are not how they will be in ten years, five years, or one year. For games, I'm thinking every game will be completely AI generated by 2035.
We've seen this with AI music (barely functional in 2020, now better than nearly everything new on the radio and streaming), and are now seeing it with AI video - which was an amusing mess just a couple years ago, with the latest models being near-real. By the end of the year, there will be very few things it can do. By 2027, full-fledged "live-action" movies will be completely AI generated.
The rate AI has progressed in just five years is insane, and is in my eyes going faster than the advancement of computer technology we saw in the decade of the '90s.
Noone will give a shit about AI in 2029 just like Big Data, Crypto Currency, NFTs, .Com bubble. LLMs itself is a scam and OpenAi will crash and burn in the future. There's no way they can recoup the insane money they are spending. I'm calling it.
People keep talking about AI like how Elon talked about his FSD will be coming soon in 5 years. There's nothing that would lead me into believe Tesla can defy physics and develope a functioning FSD, nor that Large Language Models will develope Intelligence or can actually generate revenue.
For vtubing, at best you would make the perfect voice changer. But the person behind it still needs to be entertaining.
Honestly I have seen a lot more
degradation over the years when it comes to LLMs. Alot of innovations and creative ideas born in the early days of LLMs has been sapped away to uncreative slops and boring technology and people spamming the exact same thing.
For example some times ago, unlimited streams were super popular with "watchmeforever", a 24/7 sitcom cartoon AI generated shows, they hit a staggering 10k CCV in Feb 2023 and then ... tapered off to 2 views by May. People got tired of it. But at least it's something new and got killed by the industry for slops.
Trump & Biden AI was exciting when it came out. It got turned into boring slops nowadays when every channel is spamming it. Even though noone gives a shit about Biden anymore. Noone even bothered to use literally any person other than those 2, whatabout Chris Brown bantering with Drake over Domestic Violence? Nope. More trump and biden. Or how about Taylor Swift being racist? Nope, more Trump and Biden? How about just original characters? Nope, more trump and Biden. There is literally a "mold" that AI applications can not exit from. People in 2022/2023 were serious about exiting it, but 2025 are people giving up and following the same mold
Also there's a bubbling movement of the code writers who adopted and shilled really hard for Copilot/ChatGPT stopped using them altogether.
Tl;dr you can use Copilot/ChatGPT to write code. But you learn nothing from it and won't develop your skill and develop bad habits instead/lose your writing ability.
Also hallucinations, but only a small factor, the deal breaker is getting worse at your job and face being replaced.
You can (pressing X multiple times) fix hallucinations, but you cant fix human.
I do think AI is the future for things like surgery, expensive technology that exists outside of the "mass consumer products" that LLMs are trying to sell. But I'm not sure if those advancement came from LLMs or do they came from actual Machine Learning companies.
Part of the point here is that it's still better than the norm; better than what the majority will take. What is Good Enough and More Convenient will always win out
You need to have a market to disrupt a market. Vtubers in kaigai world is too niche for it. This is already demonstrated by Anilive/Nexas/IRIAM/Bond. Companies whose entire premise is "Good Enough & More Convenient", they somewhat worked in Japan but completely fell flat in EN. Maaaaaaaaaybe AI can be a thing in JP but they have always been slow to catch up with technologies. They literally are still shilling NFTs.