Nijisanji L Collection

[Xuhle]

Yes, but Salome worked because of the meme and the mystery about whether she was an milestone/anniversary joke or not. Her numbers trailing off were people realizing she was just going to continue and that there was no additional mystery to unpack.

VTA is a system that removes the mystery factor for debuts. If they ever wanted to replicate Salome by copying the factors that hyped her up, if that's even viable, it couldn't be done through VTA.

I guess it's an open question whether she was botted, but I never saw signs of it at the time. Given we now see botting all the time and how obvious that's been, Salome at least wasn't obvious in the same way.

For those that don't normally look at numbers what exactly are those signs for botting?

 

[sbm]

For those that don't normally look at numbers what exactly are those signs for botting?

A stream has a baseline but then there are huge and very regular waves above that baseline as bots are added periodically added and YT subsequently removes them. When the bots are deactivated the stream immediately returns to the baseline. I speculate that the bot companies promise a certain CCV level or range and push in more bots regularly to keep the stream in the range promised.

A single shot bot buy has this massive ramp up and fall off that is also pretty obvious.

Of course it could be that different companies and sources of bots exhibit different viewership patterns so this is all based on what we've seen lately on the EN side.

Good example, you can see the baseline and also where a shit ton of bots both piled in and then subsequently piled out:



You can have natural wave patterns too but those are pretty obvious if matched to events of the stream. For example Apex streams will have a peak and fall at the end of rounds very consistently. Games with timed rounds sometimes exhibit a bot-like wave pattern as the spacing is dead even like bots are. There's also YT error spikes (jp calls this an N pattern and en numberfriends call it a Z) which are usually to do with unstable servers or connections but often seem completely random.

 

[Xuhle]

A stream has a baseline but then there are huge and very regular waves above that baseline as bots are added periodically added and YT subsequently removes them. When the bots are deactivated the stream immediately returns to the baseline. I speculate that the bot companies promise a certain CCV level or range and push in more bots regularly to keep the stream in the range promised.

A single shot bot buy has this massive ramp up and fall off that is also pretty obvious.

Of course it could be that different companies and sources of bots exhibit different viewership patterns so this is all based on what we've seen lately on the EN side.

Good example, you can see the baseline and also where a shit ton of bots both piled in and then subsequently piled out:



You can have natural wave patterns too but those are pretty obvious if matched to events of the stream. For example Apex streams will have a peak and fall at the end of rounds very consistently. Games with timed rounds sometimes exhibit a bot-like wave pattern as the spacing is dead even like bots are. There's also YT error spikes (jp calls this an N pattern and en numberfriends call it a Z) which are usually to do with unstable servers or connections but often seem completely random.

That's while there streaming, but what about something like a sub number that could just be a one time purchase to just sit there.

Thinking of it might be better to ask how to tell just having a ton of dead accounts vs bot accounts. Both are going towards the sub number.

 

[Fauna's Deadest Sapling]

Investor Q&A happened. A ton of "trust us bros", as expected:

【QAあり】ANYCOLOR、売上高・利益共に計画どおりの進捗　コマースやイベント施策等により、4Q業績は今四半期最大を見込む

2024年3月14日に発表された、ANYCOLOR株式会社2024年4月期第3四半期決算発表の内容を書き起こしでお伝えします。

finance.logmi.jp

DeepL:


My favorite part is when they claim revenue from livestreaming is down because they stopped ACCELERATING:
"Revenues generated from live streaming have not grown as much as we expected, and are slightly below plan. I think this is partly due to the popularity of YouTube as a whole, and also because the pace of our new debuts is a little slower than expected."

They clearly have learned a lot from their fuckups.

It's so bizarre to see the quiet parts said out loud. "We're here to make money fast, not invest in stuff that will pay off in a year or two", and that's why any livers with any ambition at all are getting the fuck out.

 

[Aquatic Novellite]

That's while there streaming, but what about something like a sub number that could just be a one time purchase to just sit there.

Thing is, Salome did have absolutely insane CCV that matched her sub growth immediately after debut. /#/ lost its collective mind and eventually banned her. And it lost its collective mind because there were just no telltale signs of botting.

Since her CCV and sub growth were a match, there is no reason to assume either were artificial.

She was just a once every few years phenomenon that combined being really good at her job with company support (a rarity for Niji, to be sure) and an excellent meme space with the whole million thing that pushed the algorithm hard.

The meme is gone, of course, and she subsequently got more normal numbers. Her character doesn't have quite the staying power of someone like Pekora or Marine. But she's still pretty up there by Niji standards.

There is just nothing to suggest her initial boom wasn't legit, other than the desperate grasping at straws by /#/.

 

[Xuhle]

Thing is, Salome did have absolutely insane CCV that matched her sub growth immediately after debut. /#/ lost its collective mind and eventually banned her. And it lost its collective mind because there were just no telltale signs of botting.

Since her CCV and sub growth were a match, there is no reason to assume either were artificial.

She was just a once every few years phenomenon that combined being really good at her job with company support (a rarity for Niji, to be sure) and an excellent meme space with the whole million thing that pushed the algorithm hard.

The meme is gone, of course, and she subsequently got more normal numbers. Her character doesn't have quite the staying power of someone like Pekora or Marine. But she's still pretty up there by Niji standards.

There is just nothing to suggest her initial boom wasn't legit, other than the desperate grasping at straws by /#/.

Fair enough it's possible that niji could have started out with botting but no real evidence to suggest it.

Still though I at least like to know how would a ley person able to tell if someone botted there sub number and not just dead accounts.

 

[sbm]

That's while there streaming, but what about something like a sub number that could just be a one time purchase to just sit there.

Thinking of it might be better to ask how to tell just having a ton of dead accounts vs bot accounts. Both are going towards the sub number.

Fair enough it's possible that niji could have started out with botting but no real evidence to suggest it.

Still though I at least like to know how would a ley person able to tell if someone botted there sub number and not just dead accounts.

No real way to tell for sub numbers. YT sub culling is an attempt to reduce "low-quality" engagement as YT terms it but we've seen so many false positives with it that it can't be seen as a sign of anything.

 

[Clown Penis]

Fair enough it's possible that niji could have started out with botting but no real evidence to suggest it.

Still though I at least like to know how would a ley person able to tell if someone botted there sub number and not just dead accounts.

Dude, purchasing botting would impinge on the short-term profitability.

This IS 2434 we're talking about.

Simplest answer. lol

 

[Xuhle]

Dude, purchasing botting would impinge on the short-term profitability.

This IS 2434 we're talking about.

Simplest answer. lol

I mean getting bots for your joke character would be fitting for short term profits. Would mean free marketing to have them gaining so many subs in such a short time.

Ether way just speculation as I saw her quick growth and assuming botting had to be involved.

 

[MerelyTourist]

Investor Q&A happened. A ton of "trust us bros", as expected:

"rebuilding the trust" LOL, fat chance that'll happen. Gotta start with hiring 70$/h real managers in US/CA (and without farfetched bilingual requirement that), but they obviously won't.

 

[God's Strongest Mozumite]

I was watching the lawfag talk about HoloCN and I think he's spiraling too...
He, NO JOKE, went "Nijisanji probably instigated the taiwan drama to take Holo out of the chinese market" Like bro... don't you already have enough dirt on them? Do we need to make 9/11 style conspiracies now?


at 3:35:55

Now wait a minute (), you mean to tell me that the bloodsucking lawyer who jumped on the niji hate train despite having nothing to do with vtubing beforehand is ACTUALLY a fucking grifter who'll make stupid shit up on a whim to get more superberries? Why, who could've seen this coming?

 

[Nenélove]

Now wait a minute (), you mean to tell me that the bloodsucking lawyer who jumped on the niji hate train despite having nothing to do with vtubing beforehand is ACTUALLY a fucking grifter who'll make stupid shit up on a whim to get more superberries? Why, who could've seen this coming?

I did, because I'm also a fucking bloodsucking lawyer, and people got mad at me.
Never trust lawyers, good faith doesn't exist for us and we are always after profit. We are essentially 21st century mercenaries, the second shit hits the fan we are always looking to bounce and save ourselves.

 

[Awoogers]

hearing about the experiences of the people around me regarding lawfags and the like led me to not trusting them

seems like that was a right call

 

[MerelyTourist]

Now wait a minute (), you mean to tell me that the bloodsucking lawyer who jumped on the niji hate train despite having nothing to do with vtubing beforehand is ACTUALLY a fucking grifter who'll make stupid shit up on a whim to get more superberries? Why, who could've seen this coming?

Сome on, that was a good rrat! And now, with niji cartoonish level villainy, it sounds very damn sensible.

 

[USS IOWA]

I did, because I'm also a fucking bloodsucking lawyer, and people got mad at me.
Never trust lawyers, good faith doesn't exist for us and we are always after profit. We are essentially 21st century mercenaries, the second shit hits the fan we are always looking to bounce and save ourselves.

So you're a lawyer huh, That explains a lot.

I'm gonna feel bad for Petra though, Her 3D will over lap the Fes. At best though her stream might be a waiting room for the shows to start.

 

[Nenélove]

Сome on, that was a good rrat! And now, with niji cartoonish level villainy, it sounds very damn sensible.

No, it's retarded and only someone who knows nothing about vtubing could think of it because it makes no fucking sense. All evidence clearly points to the chinese eliminating themselves to sack Coco because she was "ruining" Holo for them.

 

[I Wanna Die]

I did, because I'm also a fucking bloodsucking lawyer, and people got mad at me.
Never trust lawyers, good faith doesn't exist for us and we are always after profit. We are essentially 21st century mercenaries, the second shit hits the fan we are always looking to bounce and save ourselves.

All you need to remember is which ethnicity has a penchant for becoming lawyers and that should've made it obvious.

 

[Xuhle]

No, it's retarded and only someone who knows nothing about vtubing could think of it because it makes no fucking sense. All evidence clearly points to the chinese eliminating themselves to sack Coco because she was "ruining" Holo for them.

Yep that rrat was retard an probably shouldn't have been entertained. Also

 

[Nenélove]

Yep that rrat was retard an probably shouldn't have been entertained. Also

NOOOOO! STOP NOTICING THINGS! STOP BRINGING IT UP!
it is my god given right to timeloop all i want bitch, you can't stop me from mocking your lawfag oshi

 

[Xuhle]

NOOOOO! STOP NOTICING THINGS! STOP BRINGING IT UP!
it is my god given right to timeloop all i want bitch, you can't stop me from mocking your lawfag oshi

Also if we want to entertain these retard rrat we should probably add in that these are also likely the same niji fans that harassed aloe to commit suicide.