Hang on...
I might be misremembering, but I remember someone saying that a second buyback would reduce the number of shares on the market below a required amount to stay publicly listed. What changed?
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Nijisanji L Collection
- Thread starter The Proctor
- Start date
So I don't have a lot of time to look over it but a brief look through doesn't look pretty:
-Stacking NijiJP and NijiEN graphs to obfuscate the massive decline for the EN branch is a huge red flag, I'll dig through the financials regarding the branches later
They failed to hit all their forecasts:
Revenue forecast was 33,000 but they only hit 31,996
Operating Profit forecast was 12,700 but they only hit 12,362
Net Profit forecast was 9,000 but they only hit 8,726
Their forecasts for next year are massively smaller jumps:
Revenue forecast for next year is 39,000: only 18% over their previous forecast and only 21.9% over their actual for this year: Last year's forecast was 30.2% over actual
Operating Profit forecast for next year is 14,800: only 16.5% over their previous forecast and only 19.7% over their actual: Last year's forecast was 34.9% over actual
Net Profit forecast for next year is 10,360: only 15.1% over their previous forecast and only 18.7% over their actual: Last year's forecast was 34.3% over actual
So yeah, they failed to hit their expectations despite doing every sort of event they could to bolster their revenue in a "break glass in case of emergency" situation while opening up every merch event they could. Furthermore they expect their growth to slow substantially. Their forecast for their revenue growth is roughly a 30% slower growth than last year's estimates while their operating profit and net profit forecasts expect nearly a 40% slower growth compared to last year's estimates. Their shit looks immensely fucked, they know its fucked, and they're even telling the investors in the quietest way they can that they don't have confidence in the company growing, hence that massive buyback to keep the stock price up. The last buyback was for 2.5B JPY while this one is 3x the size for 7.5B JPY or 6.4% of their outstanding shares. For reference, they only have 16.2B JPY in cash as of April 30th.
It would be VERY funny if Riku took the advice that a lot of American Billionaires have done and took out a loan using his shares as collateral.
He's absolutely leveraged against the stock value, likely when it was several multiples higher. Their actions fit exactly in line with that, so it's a pretty safe assumption.
1 in 50 Stock Buybacks make any actual sense. I've gone around with Wall Street types on it for years and it never holds up. (The buyback is always a trivial amount compared to the daily or weekly volume on the stock. It's washed out instantly without changing any core financial or asset situations.) Do a 1-time dividend if you're overly cash flush and you want to avoid the common "company buying mission creep" issues.
Though, frankly, if Riku wasn't the mass plurality owner and functionally in full control, he should be removed along with the board for issuing that type of buyback. You're a media company, buy up some of your primary vendors or invest in functional spaces you can both use & rent. I'm sure you could probably buy multiple recording studios in Tokyo for even 500mil JPY.
I will add one thought, though, on the buyback. I don't know the deep details of Japanese Finance Regulations, so it's possible they can't do a dividend as a 1 time or because Riku owns so much and is on the board. There might be anti-Private Equity laws there.
That's an interesting thought. Using the buyback to get the stock delisted would I think be a unique strategy.
If they buy so much to get delisted, they turn into privately traded, which basically forces them to buy back all remaining shares up to 100%, or cash out dividends to remaining holders, else what's the point? Also almost immedeately pay up on all market value tied loans. They have no money for any such thing, selling the car won't help much.
(anyone knows what it takes to go back private under JP regualtions? apparently, there is long ongoing exodus https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...rms-opt-to-go-private-as-activist-clout-grows)
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Or Riku decided to go with the easiest and most idiotic way to pay dividends because he is nowhere near as smart as he wants everyone to think. At this point I am fully expecting he pocketed money from the company or blew it on some crypto scam, because you don't operate on a steady financial incline for years and then suddenly find yourself short 20 something billions with no signs of where the money you took from shareholders even went. It requires possessing negative financial skills and you shouldn't run a company, or obscene levels of stealing
What are you talking about? Everyone knows exactly where all of the shareholders money went. It's not much of a mystery..
I did the math, and if you exclude Events from the Q4 report, the YoY is 1,373 -> 916. A 33.3% decline from previous Q4. EN isn't just bleeding, it's got seven gunshots in the back in a dark alley. It's likely that the gains in JP are only going to coverup the decline this time around. Next Quarterly I can see it overall declining due to the continued losses in EN.
in b4 Riku went all in on yuanbucks and got all his money stolen by BiliBili/VirtuaReal.
Looking at Niji's events page, there will be streaming tickets eventually but they're currently not on sale??
NIJISANJI EN SUMMER JAM powered by Anime Expo 2024
EXPERIENCE THE MIDSUMMER MUSIC LIVE BROUGHT TO YOU BY NIJISANJI EN!
If it's prerecorded they probably don't want it to get leaked ahead of time. They say they will appear remotely but the chances of it are slim
There was that supercar parked in front of their office. Which are extra expensive in japland because of huge taxes(what is that, like >30% added to EU price with VAT+import+buy tax?)
Someone on /r/kurosanji pointed out that their "comprehensive" support system for vtubers stops at debut.
This gets brought up every single time these PDFs come out.
They simultaneously breaching another bottom and reaching new heights of irony.
WTF are they doing at AX? Their site is absolute garbage that and their map pdf too, both need fucking supercomputer to use.
Doki leans over and whispers to the guy sitting next to her.
"You see those guys? Those guys right there? They're some bitches. I'm talkin next level basics. I mean white girl at starbucks in furry boots. Not even a competition. Fuckin Negligibles."
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