My rrat feeding and herding follows.
Vesper is dead/incapacitated/uncontactable:
- Points in favour:
-- Unprecedented, would explain the difficulty of making a suitable PR statement, especially if communication with the family is an issue.
- Comments:
-- I remember Vesper saying early on that he never told his family he was a Vtuber and they thought he was being scammed. (He said that they gave him some advice during his suspension, so maybe he eventually told them, or maybe he just described his situation to them in general terms.) What if it also goes the other way? Could he have made it difficult for Cover to find his next of kin?
- Points against:
-- Why would Magni be involved? If there was an incident or crime and he was a witness, why would he shill his Lando merch the same day Vesper disappeared? If he wasn't involved, why can't he stream or say he needs to take time off?
-- I'd expect the other guys to be more anxious or sad or reluctant to talk about Vesper, not Shinri talking about how he wants Vesper and Magni on a Tempus Rust server. Unless Cover never told them, but wow.
Luggage stolen
- Points in favour:
-- Fits with Altare's comment about Vesper and Magni's privacy, and Cover's reluctance to disclose info.
- Points against:
-- Should have been resolved by now, barring incompetence with remote lockout and backup systems (which admittedly is very possible).
Doxing
- Points in favour:
-- Fits with Altare's comment about Vesper and Magni's privacy, and Cover's reluctance to disclose info.
- Points against:
-- Lando would not be streaming with his Twitch friends in his house, or with Lord Commander Chaos (not-Bettel).
Tech compromised
- Points in favour:
-- Fits in Vesper's login issues shortly before the disappearance.
- Points against:
-- How is Magni involved? It's definitely possible, but not immediately apparent.
-- If no disciplinary action was taken, it should probably have been resolved by now.
-- If disciplinary action was taken, an unannounced suspension is possible, but not the usual method or duration. An as-yet-unannounced termination is possible, but does not seem to fit with the namedrops we have.
Catastrophic failure (e.g. accidental deletion of the new models)
- Points in favour:
-- Affects both Vesper and Magni.
-- May take a long time to resolve.
- Points against:
-- Doesn't fit Altare's comment about privacy.
About namedrops:
- Hakka keeping a Vestie and Magmite with him when he streams - Yes
- Axel saying he wants more Kintama (Axel and Magni) collabs - Yes
- Shinri talking about Vesper and Magni and his plans for a Rust server - Yes
- Bettel building furniture with "a friend" - Yes/no? Is this still in the VOD?
- Bettel building furniture with Magni - No
So what is the difference between the first three statements and Bettel's statement? Bettel's statement would be an undeniable statement (with no fig-leaf separation between Lando and Magni) that Magni is contactable, and of sound enough body and mind to build furniture with friends. To me, that suggests Cover needs the personae "Vesper" and "Magni" to not be active. An unannounced suspension for any reason, or legal issues, would fit this.