I work in an industry that requires me to live near a major metro area. So I'm invariably affected by them in my day to day life. It happens to the best of us.
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Of everything I've been thinking and reading, the timeline laid out above is the one that makes the most sense to me. I think she might have been in low spirits after the break she had leading up to Hogwart's launch, and the harssment she got sealed the deal to make the call to graduate. It would also account for her talking to Pomu and Silvervale in private to give them the heads up.