HoloAdvent En3 Talent Discussion/Debut Thread

[Latte'Ninba]

Want a cult-hit VN that has been largely passed over because there is absolutely zero marketing presence or stream presence? This one's for the weebs, a remake of an early-2000's ADV that wears its inspirations on its sleeves, they do not make them like this anymore:

Off topic but holy shit was I never expecting to see anyone I've ever seen or met in my life bring up Kowloon. I randomly bought it on sale for like 5 bucks and man. I got sad and stalled playing it because I somehow fucked up recruiting the teacher though. Game's weird as Hell but what a fucking gem. Really need to just get back to it.

Lando was the ONLY 100% prediction of Tempus, as he liked a Magni art on his Lando account, but it was screenshotted by 3 other anons before he removed it. It was Axel who people couldn't identify until post debut, as he was a literal who. Can't comment on Vanguard, as I was out of town during the week of their debut.

As for council girls, the only one that was wrongly predicted by a lot of people was Fauna, who most people wanted to be Hana Flores (aka Beryl) but this may have been copium more than anything (Lemonleaf was the 2nd most popular guess). Kronii was like a 90% guess as her Dottovu friends had a Kronii fan art twit like a few minutes after her twitter came up, Sana was about the same prediction strength as we knew that she was connected to Ina, while Mumei was about a 70% prediction strength as her art was VERY similar to Shachimu (plus Shachimu was the highest subbed youtuber that was available at that time AND she didn't become NijiEN's Petra). I forgot exactly how Bae got deduced, but I'm 100% sure the name Marica Bellrose came up before debut and was the lead guess (if I had to guess, it's because Miori was one of the first followers).

IRyS was the hilarious one, as the first guess most people had in vt was Avril Lavigne. Probably just a meme joke, but after that Namirin was the the highest prediction due to being the highest profile anime singer with Vtubing experience, on top of living in Japan (which is probably a requirement due to recording issues and it was the height of Covid restictions).

To be fair, IRyS also ended up giving herself away within like.. 7 hours by replying on the wrong account. Man that was fuckin hilarious. I adore that absolute dork.
I also know that Randon was consistently being brought up as potential with Tempus, and @wew was a true believer for pretty much the entire the lead up.

 

[God's Strongest Dragoon]

As for council girls, the only one that was wrongly predicted by a lot of people was Fauna, who most people wanted to be Hana Flores (aka Beryl) but this may have been copium more than anything (Lemonleaf was the 2nd most popular guess)

I remember some people were saying Fauna was Hana Flores pre-Council debut.

Yes, people were predicting Hana Flores until the Shondo moment on twitter. It's been a few years but if I recall correctly:
>Shondo's friend Lemonleaf stops streaming
>people add Lemonleaf's name to the hat of choices but no one really takes the possibility of them hiring Shondo's friend seriously
>Fauna's model/concept as nature is shown, some people joke about Lemonleaf being Fauna because "haha, nature = leaf!". No one takes it seriously
>everyone instead believes it's Hana Flores at this point
>Council starts tweeting before debut
>Shondo tweets at Fauna (and I'm pretty sure only Fauna of the council girls)
>Fauna doesn't even respond to Shondo and leaves her on read
>Actual schizo Shondo has a schizo meltdown about not being able to trust friends and some wild shit (yes, Froot wasn't the first to do this when Bettel debuted)
>everyone puts the clues together and starts believing Fauna is Lemonleaf

 

[Negzana]

Yes, people were predicting Hana Flores until the Shondo moment on twitter. It's been a few years but if I recall correctly:
>Shondo's friend Lemonleaf stops streaming
>people add Lemonleaf's name to the hat of choices but no one really takes the possibility of them hiring Shondo's friend seriously
>Fauna's model/concept as nature is shown, some people joke about Lemonleaf being Fauna because "haha, nature = leaf!". No one takes it seriously
>everyone instead believes it's Hana Flores at this point
>Council starts tweeting before debut
>Shondo tweets at Fauna (and I'm pretty sure only Fauna of the council girls)
>Fauna doesn't even respond to Shondo and leaves her on read
>Actual schizo Shondo has a schizo meltdown about not being able to trust friends and some wild shit (yes, Froot wasn't the first to do this when Bettel debuted)
>everyone puts the clues together and starts believing Fauna is Lemonleaf

Schizoaffective disorder is a hell of a drug

 

[God's Strongest Dragoon]

Schizoaffective disorder is a hell of a drug

Over the past 10 years, people have started to claim they have mental illnesses for brownie points, so it's pretty easy to dismiss them as attention-seeking retards. Not Shondo though. When she straight up admitted she is a schizo a few months ago, it was less of a "wow, you're so brave, we never would have guessed" but more of a "yes Shondo, we know, please go back to pedo-baiting" moment.

 

[NeneHATE]

Yes, people were predicting Hana Flores until the Shondo moment on twitter. It's been a few years but if I recall correctly:
>Shondo's friend Lemonleaf stops streaming
>people add Lemonleaf's name to the hat of choices but no one really takes the possibility of them hiring Shondo's friend seriously
>Fauna's model/concept as nature is shown, some people joke about Lemonleaf being Fauna because "haha, nature = leaf!". No one takes it seriously
>everyone instead believes it's Hana Flores at this point
>Council starts tweeting before debut
>Shondo tweets at Fauna (and I'm pretty sure only Fauna of the council girls)
>Fauna doesn't even respond to Shondo and leaves her on read
>Actual schizo Shondo has a schizo meltdown about not being able to trust friends and some wild shit (yes, Froot wasn't the first to do this when Bettel debuted)
>everyone puts the clues together and starts believing Fauna is Lemonleaf

I'm glad fauna got into Holo and not her lol, she's better off as an indie pedobaiter.
I wonder how many indies and even corpo vtubers have applied to Holo but will never admit it because it's essentially admitting "I wasn't good enough", also Holo is le ebil idol corpo and not cool with the kids nowadays, so you might be looked down upon by the other down-on-their-luck indies if you admit you tried to escape the crab bucket.

 

[The Proctor]

I'm glad fauna got into Holo and not her lol, she's better off as an indie pedobaiter.
I wonder how many indies and even corpo vtubers have applied to Holo but will never admit it because it's essentially admitting "I wasn't good enough", also Holo is le ebil idol corpo and not cool with the kids nowadays, so you might be looked down upon by the other down-on-their-luck indies if you admit you tried to escape the crab bucket.

We know for a fact that Idol has gotten several thousand auditions at the very least for its EN waves. I'd say Niji gets tens of thousands. Wouldn't be shocked if Hololive got close to 100k.

 

[NeneHATE]

We know for a fact that Idol has gotten several thousand auditions at the very least for its EN waves. I'd say Niji gets tens of thousands. Wouldn't be shocked if Hololive got close to 100k.

Didn't subaru say once they got 20k?

 

[God's Strongest Dragoon]

We know for a fact that Idol has gotten several thousand auditions at the very least for its EN waves. I'd say Niji gets tens of thousands. Wouldn't be shocked if Hololive got close to 100k.

Yeah, it's not just "NA territory" sending in applications. You've got the rest of the Western Hemisphere that speaks English while there's the entirety of Europe.

Didn't subaru say once they got 20k?

Wouldn't be surprised. I'd argue that despite the percentage of the population that would apply is higher in Japan, the number of applicants for the JP branch is going to be dwarfed by the number of applicants for the EN branch. Just the fact that English is many times more common than Japanese would give this result.

Even if we played around with retarded numbers like:
JP branch applicants = 60% of Japan's population and all foreign Japanese speakers
EN branch applicants = 0.5% of the entire English-speaking population in the Western Hemisphere and Europe

Even in that hypothetical with retarded numbers for Japan, EN is going to be a massive amount of applicants.

 

[dragoonkain3]

Thanks for the reminder; now I remember how Fauna/Sana/IRyS got deduced. That Shondo affair I remember vividly now that it has been brought up, while Sana/IRyS are just pon with Twitter. This would have all been easy to research again if the farms were still up, but after 2 years the details have escaped me. XD

As for the rest of Tempus, Hanbyul IIRC was the lead guess for Altare because of his recent graduation and his skill in FPS. There was something about his twitter as well, but whether it was because of Hanbyul's friend or his writing style, the reason escapes me.

And am I remembering wrong, but Vesper was a high confidence guess as Randon right? I remember people were talking about whether Randon will be Magni or Vesper (so the confidence in him being in was there - the question was who). I vaguely remember Randon stopping his activities roughly the same time as Lando, so when Magni was confirmed then Randon as Vesper started being a high confidence guess, but there may be another reason why Randon was the suspect that escapes me.

Now as for the current EN3:

Twins = GGN sisters 90% confidence (due to twit style + similar debut thumb + sharing a single channel)
Koseki = Waabyu 70% confidence (loli voice, played souls games when Koseki referenced Elden Ring in a twit)
Nerisa = Momoki 50% confidence (Nerissa used 'ope', a midwestern slang, and Caitlin is known to be from the midwest. This on top of Momoki is one of the few vtuber utaites with covers in the millions of views, and one that's actually free ATM)
Shiori = Natsumi Moe 15% confidence (/numbers/ were speculating because Natsumi started to purge her catalogue, but I don't personally buy it for now)

 

[Horo7618]

We know for a fact that Idol has gotten several thousand auditions at the very least for its EN waves. I'd say Niji gets tens of thousands. Wouldn't be shocked if Hololive got close to 100k.

Now consider that those applications are coming in via a Google form that dumps the data into a Gdoc spreadsheet....

 

[sbm]

Shiori = Natsumi Moe 15% confidence (/numbers/ were speculating because Natsumi started to purge her catalogue, but I don't personally buy it for now)

I'd agree mostly, probably a bit higher on mom0ki. Tweet style is similar.
Moe was a books girl. I don't think it increases the confidence but it's another data point. Koseki got followed by a Waabyuu friend early who didn't interact with anyone else. Same confidence though, a small chance it's all coincidence.

 

[Audi Vide Tace]

Now consider that those applications are coming in via a Google form that dumps the data into a Gdoc spreadsheet....

Honestly if they are getting that many I can’t even imagine how difficult or hard it would be to sort through them all.

Might as well wear a blindfold and start throwing darts at a board with pictures on them at that point.

 

[Thomas Talus]

Honestly if they are getting that many I can’t even imagine how difficult or hard it would be to sort through them all.

Might as well wear a blindfold and start throwing darts at a board with pictures on them at that point.

There's a reason a lot of folks hold Cover's talent acquisition department in something close to reverence; their track record of pulling hits out of that sort of pile is nothing short of miraculous.

 

[Horo7618]

There's a reason a lot of folks hold Cover's talent acquisition department in something close to reverence; their track record of pulling hits out of that sort of pile is nothing short of miraculous.

I gotta wonder if there isn't some other factor involved. Like maybe they have a research department building a list of potential talents they're interested in and cross-referencing that against the applications and shortlisting the ones on both lists.

 

[NeneHATE]

Now consider that those applications are coming in via a Google form that dumps the data into a Gdoc spreadsheet....

A job I'd love to have ngl, the autist in me loves datasets and clearing the cruft until only the best of the best remains.
One thing that does stand out to me is that they always seem to pick at least 2-3 people speculated by the community, aka people known enough to be put in the suspect list, which all happen to be established creators, I guess previous experience in the field does make all the difference.

 

[Scoots]

Can't comment on Vanguard, as I was out of town during the week of their debut.

Vanguard I recall being sniped like fish in a barrel
Shinri tweeted his love of a very specific type of art in almost the exact same wording Lex Parte did in the past

Machina I think got got with tweet style

I forget how Bettel was pegged I remember Chaos being a candidate

Hakka was pegged because Espanol metal singer I think

I also know that Randon was consistently being brought up as potential with Tempus, and @wew was a true believer for pretty much the entire the lead up.

In fact iirc @wew made her account back on the homeland to specifically shill her Oshi Randon start the vesper prediction and autistically break down exactly why he was definitely gonna be Vesper in a way only a true fan can

 

[Username Required]

What is this forum's stance on NSFW? Some lads on vt shared Shiori lora stuff. I went ahead and played around. Long story short would it be fine to share a spoilered nsfw Shiori image here? Pg-13, no seggs, no genitalia.

edit:

Spoiler: Shiori Novella NSFW

 

[The Proctor]

What is this forum's stance on NSFW? Some lads on vt shared Shiori lora stuff. I went ahead and played around. Long story short would it be fine to share a spoilered nsfw Shiori image here? Pg-13, no seggs, no genitalia.

Go ahead.

 

[Jolted Cookies]

The more I see the less I think it's Beryl. The whole "is into idols" thing is something that

Spoiler

mom0ki talked about a few times. Her youtuber... I guess I'd call it an utaite group, was stylized as a "virtual idol group". Voice could work especially if she plays up a character, claims to eat meat, "Ope" is midwestern slang and Caitlyn is from the midwest, writing style with use of ellipses and she even occasionally ended tweets with ~ on her main. I mean, there are absolutely Nerissa style tweets:
View attachment 37820

Meanwhile Beryl/Peari is basically no-caps only. Guess we'll see her in Phase.

During her graduation stream, Beryl brought up two points. 1) That she really wants to get good at one thing, presumably singing. And 2) She wanted genmates to bounce off of and feel like she was part of a group. (she was basically on an island streaming in English) I think she could reach those requirements in either Hololive or Phase; and with it looking more like mom0ki is in, I can put away my excitement for Beryl for another day.





Uhh.... maybe I'm glad it's not Peari.

 

[El Rrata]

What is this forum's stance on NSFW? Some lads on vt shared Shiori lora stuff. I went ahead and played around. Long story short would it be fine to share a spoilered nsfw Shiori image here? Pg-13, no seggs, no genitalia.

edit:

Spoiler: Shiori Novella NSFW

View attachment 37877

Go ahead.

So long as it doesn't involve Piccolo and/or Vegeta.